Primary Predictions of the Past
In the last 50 years, how often did each state predict the eventual nominee?
Democratic Primaries & Caucuses
| State | Date 2016 Primary/Caucus | Percent Winner Became Nominee |
|---|---|---|
Kansas | MARCH 5 | 100% |
Wyoming | APRIL 9 | 88.89% |
Missouri | MARCH 15 | 85.71% |
Virginia | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Minnesota | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Georgia | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Illinois | MARCH 15 | 77.78% |
New Mexico | JUNE 7 | 75% |
New York | APRIL 19 | 75% |
Idaho | MARCH 22 | 75% |
Montana | JUNE 7 | 71.43% |
Delaware | APRIL 26 | 71.43% |
Connecticut | APRIL 26 | 71.43% |
Washington | MARCH 26 | 71.43% |
Hawaii | MARCH 26 | 71.43% |
Maine | MARCH 6 | 71.43% |
Louisiana | MARCH 5 | 71.43% |
Colorado | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
Arkansas | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
Alabama | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
New Jersey | JUNE 7 | 66.67% |
Oregon | MAY 17 | 66.67% |
Pennsylvania | APRIL 26 | 66.67% |
Nebraska | MARCH 5 | 66.67% |
Rhode Island | APRIL 26 | 62.50% |
Maryland | APRIL 26 | 62.50% |
North Carolina | MARCH 15 | 62.50% |
Michigan | MARCH 8 | 62.50% |
Texas | MARCH 1 | 62.50% |
Tennessee | MARCH 1 | 62.50% |
Washington D.C. | JUNE 14 | 57.14% |
North Dakota | JUNE 7 | 57.14% |
Kentucky | MAY 17 | 57.14% |
Utah | MARCH 22 | 57.14% |
Mississippi | MARCH 8 | 57.14% |
California | JUNE 7 | 55.56% |
Wisconsin | APRIL 5 | 55.56% |
Ohio | MARCH 15 | 55.56% |
Florida | MARCH 15 | 55.56% |
Vermont | MARCH 1 | 50% |
Iowa | FEBRUARY 1 | 50% |
South Dakota | JUNE 7 | 44.44% |
Indiana | MAY 3 | 44.44% |
Massachusetts | MARCH 1 | 44.44% |
New Hampshire | FEBRUARY 9 | 44.44% |
Alaska | MARCH 26 | 42.86% |
Oklahoma | MARCH 1 | 42.86% |
Arizona | MARCH 22 | 37.50% |
South Carolina | FEBRUARY 27 | 37.50% |
West Virginia | MAY 10 | 33.33% |
Nevada | FEBRUARY 20 | 28.57% |
Republican Primaries & Caucuses
| State | Date 2016 Primary/Caucus | Percent Winner Became Nominee |
|---|---|---|
Kentucky | MARCH 5 | 100% |
Illinois | MARCH 15 | 100% |
Wisconsin | APRIL 5 | 100% |
New York | APRIL 19 | 100% |
Maryland | APRIL 26 | 100% |
Oregon | MAY 17 | 100% |
New Jersey | JUNE 7 | 100% |
Washington D.C. | MARCH 12 | 87.5% |
Florida | MARCH 15 | 87.5% |
Ohio | MARCH 15 | 87.5% |
Pennsylvania | APRIL 26 | 87.5% |
Indiana | MAY 3 | 87.5% |
Nebraska | MAY 10 | 87.5% |
Texas | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Vermont | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Virginia | MARCH 1 | 85.71% |
Idaho | MARCH 8 | 85.71% |
North Carolina | MARCH 15 | 85.71% |
Delaware | APRIL 26 | 85.71% |
Rhode Island | APRIL 26 | 85.71% |
New Mexico | JUNE 7 | 85.71% |
New Hampshire | FEBRUARY 9 | 75% |
West Virginia | MAY 10 | 75% |
California | JUNE 7 | 75% |
Nevada | FEBRUARY 23 | 71.43% |
South Carolina | FEBRUARY 20 | 71.43% |
Arkansas | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
Oklahoma | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
Tennessee | MARCH 1 | 71.43% |
Maine | MARCH 5 | 71.43% |
Mississippi | MARCH 8 | 71.43% |
Utah | MARCH 22 | 71.43% |
Connecticut | APRIL 26 | 71.43% |
Washington | MAY 24 | 71.43% |
North Dakota | JUNE 7 | 71.43% |
South Dakota | JUNE 7 | 62.50% |
Alabama | MARCH 1 | 57.14% |
Alaska | MARCH 1 | 57.14% |
Colorado | MARCH 1 | 57.14% |
Georgia | MARCH 1 | 57.14% |
Kansas | MARCH 5 | 57.14% |
Louisiana | MARCH 5 | 57.14% |
Hawaii | MARCH 8 | 57.14% |
Michigan | MARCH 8 | 57.14% |
Missouri | MARCH 15 | 57.14% |
Arizona | MARCH 22 | 57.14% |
Wyoming | APRIL 9 | 57.14% |
Montana | JUNE 7 | 57.14% |
Massachusetts | MARCH 1 | 50% |
Iowa | FEBRUARY 1 | 42.86% |
Minnesota | MARCH 1 | 42.86% |
Analytics@American
Data sourced from 1968-2012 Federal Election Commission Public Records
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